I said it last year - and I'll say it again. There is only one activity more thankless than predicting the future - and that is publicly sharing your predictions.

我去年就說過今年要再強(qiáng)調(diào)的一點(diǎn)是：唯一比預(yù)測未來更不招人待見的事情就是公開自己的預(yù)言。

Judge for yourself. Click here and here to review my predictions from the past year.

判斷權(quán)在你手里。點(diǎn)擊這里可以看到去年此時我對2009年的預(yù)言。

Meanwhile, it's onto 2010:

現(xiàn)在，我們來說說2010年。

AIG CEO Robert Benmosche will be voted CEO of the Year.

美國國際集團(tuán)首席執(zhí)行長本默切將當(dāng)選年度CEO。

Benmosche's abrasive morale-building exercise at AIG will take hold. The U.S. pay czar will give Benmosche leeway on pay. And a continuing rebound in the markets will give AIG a shot at repaying a good chunk of taxpayer money.

本默切重振公司士氣的艱苦努力將取得回報。美國“薪酬沙皇”將對他網(wǎng)開一面。而且各個市場的持續(xù)回暖將令公司有機(jī)會償還一大筆美國納稅人的救助資金。

Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman will do an about-face on the bank's 'lower risk' corporate strategy.

摩根士丹利首席執(zhí)行長戈爾曼將給該行所謂“降低風(fēng)險”的策略來個大掉頭。

About now, new CEO Gorman is probably learning that the meager profits of a retail brokerage can't pay for all those monster Wall Street bonuses. Expect Gorman to decide that Morgan Stanley should be a lot more like trader Goldman Sachs, after all.

眼下，這位大摩新掌門或許意識到了來自零售經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)的微薄盈利還不夠華爾街薪酬的血盆大口塞牙縫。預(yù)計戈爾曼會決定最終要向交易商高盛看齊。

Goldman Sachs will pay out big bonuses, be publicly vilified for a month and then go quietly back to printing profits.

高盛將大派紅包，飽受各方抨擊一個月，然后靜悄悄地干回自己的老本行－－掙錢。

The U.S. Congress and the media will go berserk when Goldman announces the size of its 2009 bonus pool. But the outrage will be brief and of little lasting consequence. The 'hate Goldman Sachs' story has been running just too long.

估計當(dāng)高盛公布自己2009年的獎金規(guī)模時，美國國會和媒體又會氣得抓狂。但這些怨氣終將只是過眼云煙，改變不了什么。所謂“高盛招人恨”的故事實(shí)在是拖得太長了。

The GM turnaround will drag on. Forget a 2010 IPO.

通用汽車咸魚翻身不易，2010年舉行首次公開募股一事就別惦記了。

GM is addicted to hefty sales incentives to move the cars and new CEO Ed Whitacre knows it. In 2010, he will slash incentives and end up abandoning GM's 20% U.S. market share target to find profitability. The search will prove elusive.

通用汽車現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)對揮淚大促銷上癮，新首席執(zhí)行長惠塔克里對此心知肚明。他將在2010年取消一些購買刺激措施，以放棄全美20%市場占有率目標(biāo)的方式來謀求重獲盈利能力。這番求索注定是前路艱難。

Fiat will seek to renegotiate the terms of its investment in Chrysler.

菲亞特試圖就投資克萊斯勒條款重新談判。

With Chrysler's market share in a death spiral, Fiat will finally grasp that this dud is exactly that - a dud. By autumn, Fiat will threaten to walk away from Chrysler unless the UAW and U.S. taxpayer offer up even more concessions.

眼見克萊斯勒的市場份額呈現(xiàn)死亡式螺旋下降，菲亞特會最終認(rèn)識到這個不中用的公司還真就是不中用了。預(yù)計菲亞特會在8月前揚(yáng)言徹底和克萊斯勒分道揚(yáng)鑣，除非全美汽車工人聯(lián)合和美國納稅人作出更多讓步。

Washington's twin-obsessions in election year 2010 will be to create jobs and cut the deficit. Little will be accomplished on either count.

創(chuàng)造就業(yè)和削減赤字將成為華盛頓在2010年選舉之年的孿生執(zhí)念。不過，這兩樣一個都成不了現(xiàn)實(shí)。

Congress will authorize billions more in stimulus that won't be called 'stimulus' and won't actually create jobs. And Congress will convene a bi-partisan deficit cutting commission that won't do much either. Until investors stop buying US Treasurys, why should Congress change its ways?

國會將批準(zhǔn)追加數(shù)十億美元的刺激資金，但不會冠以“刺激”之名，也不會真正創(chuàng)造什么就業(yè)機(jī)會。國會將聯(lián)合兩黨成立一個削減赤字的委員會，但同樣發(fā)揮不了什么作用。既然美國國債還有投資者買，國會為什么要改弦更張？

The story of the year will be the New York City trial of Khalid Sheik Mohammed.

年度故事將是紐約對911主謀穆罕默德的審判。

The OJ Simpson trial proved that nothing gets the masses as excited as murder and celebrity. Throw in Flight 253 and the ambitions of dozens of terrorists, trial lawyers, prosecutors, politicians and aggrieved 9-11 families and you have a story that will run and run.

當(dāng)年辛普森殺妻案的審判就說明，再也沒什么能比謀殺和名人的組合更能引發(fā)公眾的集體亢奮了。再加上253號班機(jī)爆炸未遂案、幾十個恐怖分子、審判律師、公訴人、政客以及911遇難者家屬的激動情緒，足夠在你面前上演一出長得如同滔滔江水延綿不絕的連續(xù)劇。

Final predictions: Weak economic growth will continue into 2010. By spring, the Obama White House will be forced to the political center and U.S. businesses will finally believe in a modest recovery.

最后的預(yù)言：疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將延續(xù)至2010年。在春天前，奧巴馬的白宮都不得不扮演美國政治中心的角色，美國商業(yè)界也終于開始相信會出現(xiàn)溫和復(fù)蘇。

Here is my best guess - and that's all it is - for how the U.S. economy and markets will look in 2010:

下面是我對2010年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)以及市場前景最樂觀也是最終的猜測。

2010 U.S. unemployment rate (average): 10.2%

2010年美國平均失業(yè)率：10.2%。

2010 S&P 500 index (year-end): 1300

2010年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)年終收盤報：1300點(diǎn)。

2010 10-year Treasury yield (year-end): 5.0%

2010年10年期美國國債收益率年終收盤報：5.0%。

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