Ebola already reached the US when a patient was diagnosed?in Texas on September 30. But where is the disease likely to go next? A map from MOBS Lab and Northeastern University shows the risks.
9月30日美國德克薩斯州的一名病人被確診后，這意味著可怕的埃博拉病毒已經(jīng)擴(kuò)散到了美國。那么接下來埃博拉最可能擴(kuò)散到哪個(gè)國家呢？美國東北大學(xué)生物和社會(huì)技術(shù)系統(tǒng)模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)室的研究人員計(jì)算并制作了一張圖表。

To develop these estimates, researchers used a computer model that tracks the frequency of international traffic to different countries, the progression of the disease in already affected countries, and the incubation time and other aspects of Ebola. The estimates will be updated as the epidemic continues.
為了得出這些預(yù)測(cè)，研究人員們使用計(jì)算機(jī)模型追蹤自病原區(qū)西非向其他國家發(fā)出航班的頻率、已受感染地區(qū)的疫情發(fā)展情況，以及埃博拉病毒的潛伏期等其他方面。這些預(yù)測(cè)信息會(huì)隨疫情的發(fā)展而即時(shí)更新。

Outside of Africa, the risk is relatively high in the UK and France, but thankfully very low in India and China. The more advanced health-care systems in the UK and France are much better equipped to deal with an Ebola outbreak, while less advanced systems in China and particularly India, which also have considerably bigger populations to manage, could struggle to deal with an epidemic.
除了非洲地區(qū)，受埃博拉感染危險(xiǎn)度較高的是英國和法國，相對(duì)較安全的是印度和中國。但是英國和法國的醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)更先進(jìn)，所以對(duì)埃博拉疫情的防護(hù)可能也會(huì)更有效。而相比之下，中國尤其是印度的醫(yī)療保健體系不夠完善，且國家人口數(shù)量龐大，因此不能對(duì)埃博拉掉以輕心。

Peter Piot, who helped discover and name the virus, told the Guardian about his concerns with an outbreak in India:
發(fā)現(xiàn)并對(duì)埃博拉命名的彼得?派奧特表示了他對(duì)印度地區(qū)爆發(fā)疫情的擔(dān)憂：

But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.
“如果在歐洲或是北美爆發(fā)疫情則可以很快控制住。我更擔(dān)心的是那些在西非工作或做生意的印度人。只要這其中有一個(gè)人受到感染，之后在潛伏期之內(nèi)回印度探親，這時(shí)候一旦他表現(xiàn)出癥狀，他就會(huì)去公共醫(yī)院就醫(yī)。而印度的醫(yī)生和護(hù)士也都沒有穿著防護(hù)服。他們可能會(huì)立刻受到感染并傳染給其他人?！?/div>

As Vox's Julia Belluz previously explained, this is one of the nightmare Ebola scenarios that keeps scientists up at night. It's good, then, that the chance of Ebola spreading to India and China seems fairly remote.
正如VOX的茱莉亞之前解釋過的那樣，這種關(guān)于埃博拉擴(kuò)散的假設(shè)是困擾研究人員的噩夢(mèng)之一。還好，目前看來埃博拉病毒擴(kuò)散至印度和中國的機(jī)會(huì)還比較小。

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