In a normal recession, the to-do list is clear. Copies of Keynes are dusted off, the Fed lowers interest rates, the president and Congress cut taxes and hike spending. In time, purchasing, production and loans perk up, and Keynes is placed back on the shelf. No larger alterations to the economy are made, because our economy, but for the occasional bump in the road, is fundamentally sound.

This has been the drill in every recession since World War II.

Republicans and Democrats argue over whose taxes should be cut the most and which projects should be funded, but, under public pressure to do something, they usually find some mutually acceptable midpoint and enact a stimulus package. Even in today's hyperpartisan Washington, the odds still favor such a deal.

This time, though, don't expect that to be the end of the story -- because the coming recession will not be normal, and our economy is not fundamentally sound. This time around, the nation will have to craft new versions of some of the reforms that Franklin Roosevelt created to steer the nation out of the Great Depression

Keynes:凱恩斯(1883-1946),英國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家。著有理論“凱恩斯經(jīng)濟”并對當(dāng)代許多政治經(jīng)濟理論以及政府財政手段提供了研究方向。他提倡,為緩解金融危機,大蕭條或經(jīng)濟泡沫所帶來的負面影響,政府必須采取干預(yù)措施以及多種財政貨幣政策。他是當(dāng)代宏觀經(jīng)歷理論之父,20世紀影響廣泛的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家之一。自1929-33的“大蕭條”危機以來,西方資本主義世界再也沒有發(fā)生過如此大規(guī)模的危機。西方經(jīng)濟學(xué)家們認為他們通過凱恩斯主義給經(jīng)濟裝上了一套“穩(wěn)定器”。凱恩斯主義主張,應(yīng)通過國家直接干預(yù)經(jīng)濟,調(diào)節(jié)生產(chǎn),增加投資,刺激消費,保證充分就業(yè)等政策措施。而后來在美國經(jīng)濟大蕭條期,總統(tǒng)羅斯福臨危受命,他的“白日新政”基本也是參照這一思路,才使美國經(jīng)濟度過難關(guān)。

hyperpartisan Washington:hyper-,極度的;partisan,黨派人士。意指極度擁護自己所屬黨派而反對其他黨派,一意孤行甚而想至其他黨派于死地的黨派人士。強硬的黨派人士。Hyperpartisan Washionton, 位于華盛頓總部的各個強硬黨派。

Franklin Roosevelt created to steer the nation out of the Great Depression:羅斯福(1882-1945),美國第32任總統(tǒng)。20世紀30年代其執(zhí)政期間正值美國經(jīng)濟大蕭條,其臨危受命,通過“新政”大規(guī)模地首次嘗試實行了一套“反危機”的方法,留下了一個耐人尋味的成功先例。羅斯福應(yīng)對危機的一系列政策后來被稱作“新政”(NewDeal),其核心是三個R:改革(Reform)、復(fù)興(Recovery)和救濟(Relief)。羅斯福新政的第一個階段,即改革,使政府整頓金融體系,充分恢復(fù)貨幣調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟的潤滑作用;同時,幫助就業(yè),增加消費,刺激生產(chǎn),實現(xiàn)均衡發(fā)展。第二階段,即復(fù)興,他制定了旨在整頓工業(yè)的《全國產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)興法》。第三階段救濟的主要方面是以工代賑,羅斯福上任后傾注了極大的力量興辦大規(guī)模的公共工程,以擴大政府開支來彌補私人投資下降而出現(xiàn)的空白,并解決部分就業(yè)問題,而非單純的發(fā)放救濟金。正如我們上述所說,凱恩斯主義是羅斯福新政的先驅(qū),而新政內(nèi)容促進了凱恩斯主義的成熟,并帶領(lǐng)整個國家走出了經(jīng)濟大蕭條的陰影。

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