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這是一篇關(guān)于美國及其他發(fā)達(dá)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的文章。

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Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as 'steering the economy to a soft landing' or 'a touch on the brakes,' makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel. Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July.
很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“觸動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，使貨幣政策聽起來像是一門精確的科學(xué)。事實(shí)遠(yuǎn)非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系難以確定。在政策改變對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響之前，會(huì)有一段較長時(shí)間且變化不定的后滯期。因此，才會(huì)有人將貨幣政策的制定比作是駕駛一輛汽車，這輛車擋風(fēng)玻璃被涂黑了、后視鏡裂了，方向盤也失靈了。 盡管有這么多不利因素，中央銀行家們似乎對(duì)近來之形勢(shì)有了不少值得夸耀的東西。西方七大工業(yè)國去年的平均通貨膨脹降至僅2.3%，接近三十年來的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5%。