Technological change has made online coursework very competitive with the traditional means of teaching. Will it lead to dramatic change in college, or have only a minor impact? Consider the analogy to music.
隨著科技的發(fā)展，在線教育相對傳統(tǒng)教育方式所具有的競爭優(yōu)勢正不斷增加。在線教育會促使傳統(tǒng)教育產生巨大變革嗎？還是僅僅產生微小的影響呢？我們可以參考一下音樂領域的例子。

From the dawn of time until the early 20th century, when people wanted to hear music, they either had to play it themselves or go to a performance where someone else played. All music was live. Then the technology for recording and reproducing music developed.
有史以來，人們想要聽音樂就必須自己演奏，或者去欣賞他人的表演。所有的音樂都是現場演奏的。直到20世紀早期，錄制和復制音樂的技術產生了。

Primitive at first, the technology rapidly improved and today humans spend far more time listening to recorded music than to live performances. Live music hasn’t disappeared and performances can be more exciting or moving than even the greatest recordings, but recordings give us fantastic variety, high quality, and complete freedom of choice at low cost.
這種技術一開始并不完善，但后來得以迅猛發(fā)展，現在人們聽錄制音樂的時間遠遠超出了聽現場演出的時間?，F場表演的音樂形式并沒有消失，而且現場表演可能比最好的錄制音樂更激動人心、更感人，但不可否認的是，錄制音樂為我們提供了完全自由的選擇空間和非凡的多樣性，讓我們可以隨心選擇價格低廉的高品質音樂。

Similarly, for eons humans learned “l(fā)ive” – listening to and working with teachers and mentors. Beginning in Renaissance Italy, colleges and universities attracted students who wanted to study with established scholars. For some 800 years, college education meant students in a room with professors.
與之相似，長久以來人類一直都是“現場”學習——傾聽教師或導師的演說，與老師互動。自意大利文藝復興以來，大學機構吸引著學生們來接受專業(yè)學者的指導。約有800年的時間里，大學的教育模式都是學生和導師共處一室，現場學習。

Then, late in the 20th century, another learning possibility emerged, namely distance learning through the Internet. Just like recorded music, at first the quality of online courses was poor, but for some students it was the best option available. The technology steadily improved and now a large percentage of college students take at least one course online and quite a few take all of their work online through institutions such as Western Governors University.
然而，在20世紀后半葉出現了另一種教育模式，即網絡遠程教育。就像錄制音樂一樣，起初網絡課程的質量很低，但對一些學生來說，這已經是他們所能獲得的最好的教育機會。隨著網絡教育技術的穩(wěn)步發(fā)展，現在大部分的高校學生都有一門以上的課程是通過網絡學習的。在西部州長辦大學這樣的院校機構里，所有的課程都是通過網絡進行教學的。

The fact that online college courses have continued growing in popularity has led to a raging debate: Will this fundamentally transform higher education? With online education improving (and not just the much-discussed Massive Open Online Courses, or MOOCs, but also more individualized modes), more and more students will partake of the learning they want, when and where they want it online.
網絡教育大受歡迎、不斷升溫，由此引發(fā)了學術界的激烈討論：網絡教育是否將會使高等教育出現巨大變革呢？隨著在線教育的發(fā)展（不僅僅是現在引起廣泛熱議的大規(guī)模在線開放課程，還有很多個性化的在線教育模式），越來越多的學生會參與到自己需要的學習模式中，不論時間和地點他們能夠在線學習課程。

Peter Boettke, professor of economics at George Mason University, suggests that a hybrid model will emerge. He’s probably correct. The demand for the kind of quality educational experience will never vanish, any more than the demand for live music performed by virtuosi will vanish. I suspect, however, that the proportion of college education that occurs that way will shrink dramatically in the years ahead, while the proportion that occurs online will keep growing.
喬治梅森大學經濟學教授彼得·勃特克預言了一種混合教育模式的產生。他大概是對的。正如著名演奏家表演的現場音樂不會消亡一樣，對高品質現場教育的需求也永遠不會消亡。但是，據我推測，未來數年內現場教育在高校教育中所占的比重將大幅萎縮。而網絡教育所占的比重將持續(xù)增長。