科學(xué)家表示,太陽輻射的周期性減弱可能導(dǎo)致北美洲和歐洲部分地區(qū)出現(xiàn)異?!袄涠?。這項科學(xué)發(fā)現(xiàn)可以改進長期天氣預(yù)報,幫助各國準備好應(yīng)對風(fēng)雪。

Hints:
Sarah Ineson
UK Met Office
Nature Geoscience
Northern Hemisphere

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A cyclical drop in the sun's radiation can trigger unusually cold winters in parts of North America and Europe, scientists say, a finding that could improve long-range forecasts and help countries prepare for blizzards. Scientists have known for a long time that the sun has an 11-year cycle during which radiation measured by sunspots on the surface reaches a peak then falls. But pinning down a clear link to weather has proved harder. "Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate," lead author Sarah Ineson of the UK Met Office told the reporters in an email. The study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience on Monday. Her team focused on data from the recent solar minimum during 2008-10, a period of unusual calm for the sun and intense winters in the United States and parts of Europe that shut down air travel and disrupted businesses. The researchers found that a reduction in ultraviolet radiation from the sun can affect high-altitude wind patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, triggering cold winters. "While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning," said Ineson, a climate scientist.
科學(xué)家表示,太陽輻射的周期性減弱可能導(dǎo)致北美洲和歐洲部分地區(qū)出現(xiàn)異常“冷冬”。這項科學(xué)發(fā)現(xiàn)可以改進長期天氣預(yù)報,幫助各國準備好應(yīng)對風(fēng)雪。 早前研究發(fā)現(xiàn),太陽的活動周期為11年,在此期間,以太陽表面黑子為衡量標準的太陽輻射達到峰年和谷年。但證實太陽活動周期與天氣之間的明確聯(lián)系一直存在困難。 研究負責(zé)人、英國氣象局的莎拉?伊尼森在電郵中告訴記者:“對已觀測到的太陽活動變化與地區(qū)冬季氣候之間的聯(lián)系,研究予以了證實?!?研究結(jié)果本周一發(fā)表在英國《自然—地球科學(xué)》雜志上。 研究小組對最近的一次太陽活動谷年,也就是2008年至2010年的數(shù)據(jù)進行了分析。這段時間太陽活動出奇平靜,而美國出現(xiàn)極端寒冬,歐洲部分地區(qū)還曾關(guān)閉機場,這也打亂了經(jīng)濟活動。 研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn),太陽紫外線輻射水平的降低可以影響北半球高緯度的環(huán)流形態(tài),導(dǎo)致冷冬。 氣候?qū)W家伊尼森說:“紫外線水平無法預(yù)測每日的天氣狀況,但可以使我們對未來數(shù)月甚至數(shù)年的冬季氣候預(yù)測更加準確。這種預(yù)測可以使我們在較長時期內(nèi)對極端天氣做好準備?!?/div>