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Historians have speculated for years that global environmental changes caused some ancient wars to erupt, or even societies to collapse. Such connections may still exist—because new research finds that the risk of civil war in tropical countries increases during hot, dry El Nino years as opposed to cooler La Nina periods. The study is in the journal Nature. [Solomon M. Hsiang, Kyle C. Meng and Mark A. Cane, Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate]
歷史學(xué)家很多年來一直有這樣的猜想：某些古代戰(zhàn)爭甚至社會的衰退是由全球氣候變化引起的。它們之間的微妙關(guān)系至今尚存——因為一項新的研究顯示，相對較為寒冷的反圣嬰現(xiàn)象發(fā)生年間，在干燥炎熱的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象發(fā)生時，內(nèi)戰(zhàn)爆發(fā)的可能性比較大。該項研究報告刊登在《自然》雜志上。

Researchers used a database of global conflicts over the last six decades, which included clashes resulting in at least 25 deaths in battle. They compared those data to the three- to seven-year cycling of El Nino. And they found that the risk of conflict doubled during El Nino years—but only in tropical countries most affected by the climate cycle. El Nino may have played a role in spurring a fifth of the 234 conflicts studied.
研究人員研究了過去60年間全球的戰(zhàn)爭記錄，其中包括死亡人數(shù)在25人以上的沖突事件。它們將這些數(shù)據(jù)和3至7年一循環(huán)的厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象作比較之后發(fā)現(xiàn)，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象發(fā)生年間，戰(zhàn)爭發(fā)生的概率翻倍——不過僅限于受影響的熱帶國家。在研究人員研究的234場戰(zhàn)爭中，有五分之一很可能就是由厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象引發(fā)的。

This study can’t determine a cause. But the researchers say hot El Nino conditions can diminish harvests, causing food shortages and sparking conflicts. And since El Nino can be predicted up to two years in advance, governments and NGOs might be better able to plan for the possibility of a civil war.
這項研究尚未能對厄爾尼諾引起戰(zhàn)爭的確切誘因下定論，不過研究人員稱，厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象能夠?qū)е虑f稼減產(chǎn)，造成食物短缺，引起戰(zhàn)爭。好在厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象提前兩年就能預(yù)測到，政府和非政府組織可以為可能爆發(fā)的內(nèi)戰(zhàn)做一手準(zhǔn)備。

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