商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章帶翻譯
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商務(wù)英語(yǔ)文章帶翻譯
World economy
The jobs crisis 失業(yè)危機(jī)
It’s coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse
不論政府如何努力,失業(yè)危機(jī)已經(jīng)到來(lái)。不過(guò)政府可以在這場(chǎng)危機(jī)中起到關(guān)鍵作用
Illustration by Belle Mellor
NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.
再?zèng)]有什么比關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會(huì)大量失業(yè)的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見(jiàn)于人們緊繃的面容,襤褸的衣衫,還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發(fā)的政治極端主義給社會(huì)留下污點(diǎn);失業(yè)問(wèn)題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業(yè)痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計(jì)劃和失業(yè)救濟(jì)金方案都發(fā)軔于那些灰暗的失業(yè)時(shí)期;受惠于這些計(jì)劃,至少發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的人們不再因?yàn)槭I(yè)而陷入窮困。
Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do?
即使是最悲觀的預(yù)計(jì)都不認(rèn)為眼下的衰退會(huì)接近大蕭條的程度,后者使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)縮水四分之一,四分之一的就業(yè)人口失去工作。但隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)自1930年代以來(lái)的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿(mào)易80年來(lái)的最快速萎縮,大規(guī)模失業(yè)的惡魘再度凸顯,并且拋出了和大蕭條時(shí)期一樣的大問(wèn)題:政府應(yīng)該做些什么?
Join the queue 加入失業(yè)隊(duì)伍
In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes.
富裕國(guó)家的失業(yè)問(wèn)題在衰退肇始的美國(guó)最為顯著。自從07年12月經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低迷以來(lái),美國(guó)靈活的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)溢出了440萬(wàn)份失業(yè),其中在過(guò)去三個(gè)月內(nèi)每月產(chǎn)生了60萬(wàn)份。二月的失業(yè)率躍升至8.1%,是25年來(lái)的最高數(shù)字。比起有紀(jì)錄的半個(gè)世紀(jì)內(nèi)的任何時(shí)期,眼下失業(yè)的美國(guó)人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當(dāng)很多家庭的財(cái)政依靠雙職工收入的時(shí)候,這種情況尤其令人堪憂。
But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society.
然而顯而易見(jiàn)的是,失業(yè)問(wèn)題的沉重打擊遠(yuǎn)不止于美國(guó)和英國(guó)。日本的生產(chǎn)量比其他富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體下降得更快。盡管失業(yè)率尚低,但臨時(shí)工當(dāng)中快速增長(zhǎng)的失業(yè)大軍顯示了“雙層勞工市場(chǎng)”的不公平性,加劇了一個(gè)平等社會(huì)中的緊張。
In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.
在歐洲,建筑業(yè)熱潮遭遇重創(chuàng)的西班牙和愛(ài)爾蘭等國(guó)失業(yè)速度增長(zhǎng)最快,而在其他地方則初現(xiàn)端倪。很多歐洲國(guó)家的失業(yè)率都低于美國(guó),但也許這只是因?yàn)樗鼈冇懈訃?yán)格的勞工市場(chǎng),從而對(duì)下降的市場(chǎng)需求適應(yīng)更慢。面對(duì)著快速萎縮的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì),沒(méi)有人會(huì)懷疑更糟糕的就業(yè)局面就在眼前。到2010年底,多數(shù)富裕國(guó)家的失業(yè)率可能會(huì)超過(guò)10%。
In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.
發(fā)展中國(guó)家的情況就不一樣了,只不過(guò)結(jié)果會(huì)更人頭疼。隨著貿(mào)易萎縮,數(shù)以百萬(wàn)計(jì)的工人正失去他們?cè)谌蚬?yīng)鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉(zhuǎn)向非正式工作或者回到農(nóng)村,伴隨而來(lái)的是貧困問(wèn)題的抬頭。世界銀行預(yù)計(jì),今年將有約5300萬(wàn)人降到極端貧困線以下。
Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help. That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.
政治上,政府必須全力介入進(jìn)行援助。這一方面是因?yàn)槎嗄暌詠?lái)資本在利潤(rùn)中占去了很大份額,重心注定要返回;另一方面是因?yàn)榻o了銀行萬(wàn)億計(jì)美元的當(dāng)政者們承擔(dān)著巨大的壓力,需要大量注資來(lái)挽救就業(yè)崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來(lái)衡量。錯(cuò)誤的決策反倒會(huì)弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來(lái),歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)就使失業(yè)率幾十年來(lái)居高不下。
Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.
各國(guó)政府正為勞動(dòng)者提供大量的短期援助。美國(guó)的社會(huì)保障體系在富裕國(guó)家中處于最低,而最近出臺(tái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃中,擴(kuò)大失業(yè)救濟(jì)金惠及面恰恰是計(jì)劃中的一部分。日本為長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)受忽視的“非固定”勞動(dòng)者群體提供社會(huì)援助。不過(guò)總的來(lái)說(shuō),比起失業(yè)補(bǔ)助,資助企業(yè)以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國(guó)家通過(guò)縮短每周工作日或強(qiáng)制休假來(lái)滿足勞工薪資。
These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.
這些措施在一定時(shí)限內(nèi)是合理的:因?yàn)樵诙唐趦?nèi),政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀,就業(yè)危機(jī)不大可能只在短期
內(nèi)存在。即便經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退很快結(jié)束(而且?guī)缀醪豢赡馨l(fā)生),引起這場(chǎng)危機(jī)的陰云——資金短缺和過(guò)度借貸——將在接下來(lái)繼續(xù)籠罩世界經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)達(dá)數(shù)年。更有甚者,不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員,很多昔日的就業(yè)崗位會(huì)一去不復(fù)返。人們將被迫告別現(xiàn)有職位,轉(zhuǎn)行進(jìn)入新崗位。
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