Over the past month, China has unveiled a slew of reforms to its stock markets, bringing them closer into line with those of London, New York and Hong Kong, one of the country's “special administrative regions”.

過(guò)去一個(gè)月內(nèi)，中國(guó)宣布了一系列的股市改革措施，以求更接近倫敦、紐約和中國(guó)“特別行政區(qū)”之一香港的股市。

After years on the drawing board and several false starts, regulators finally introduced margin trading, short-selling and stock index futures – three tools that will help traders profit from falling as well as rising markets.

在經(jīng)過(guò)多年籌劃和數(shù)次“發(fā)令槍”誤響之后，中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)終于推出了融資、融券交易和股指期貨——這三種工具將幫助交易者獲利于下跌和上漲兩種走向的市場(chǎng)。

The reforms are not only milestones for the country's capital markets – they are the latest steps towards Shanghai's goal of becoming an international financial centre by 2020.

這些改革措施不僅是對(duì)中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)具有里程碑意義的事件，還是為實(shí)現(xiàn)上海到2020年成為國(guó)際金融中心的目標(biāo)而出臺(tái)的最新舉措。

For most financial professionals, the idea that the city will be in a position to rival Hong Kong or London within 10 years is absurd.

對(duì)大多數(shù)金融專(zhuān)業(yè)人士而言，上海在十年內(nèi)可以叫板香港或倫敦的想法是荒唐的。

For a start, it is largely shut off from international financial flows – and will remain so until China abandons its strict capital controls. Just as crucially, the city lacks an independent legal system on which foreign investors can depend.

首先，中國(guó)基本上與國(guó)際金融流動(dòng)隔離——在中國(guó)放棄嚴(yán)格的資本管制之前，這種局面不會(huì)改變。同樣重要的是，上海缺乏外國(guó)投資者可以依賴(lài)的獨(dú)立的法律體系。

Despite all that, Shanghai should not be underestimated.

盡管存在這些不足，但人們也不應(yīng)該低估上海。

“I think it may overtake London within five years,” says Dean Owen, Shanghai-based chief representative for Newedge, the French futures brokerage, which has a joint-venture with Citic Group in China.

法國(guó)期貨經(jīng)紀(jì)商N(yùn)ewedge駐上海首席代表迪安?歐文(Dean Owen)表示：“我認(rèn)為上?？赡茉?年內(nèi)超過(guò)倫敦。”Newedge與中國(guó)中信集團(tuán)(Citic Group)成立了一家合資公司。

“A strong factor in this is that China has a centralised government that can make policy decisions very quickly compared with the US,” Mr Owen says. “They've set themselves a goal – 2020 – and they'll achieve it. No doubt at all.”

歐文表示：“一個(gè)重要的原因是，與美國(guó)相比，中國(guó)是中央集權(quán)政府，能夠非常迅速地進(jìn)行政策決策。他們?yōu)樽约褐贫?020年的目標(biāo)，他們將實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，這毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)?！?/div>

Shanghai has come a long way over the past decade. It now hosts the world's second-largest stock market by market capitalisation after New York.

上海在過(guò)去10年已經(jīng)取得了很大進(jìn)展。按市值計(jì)算，它擁有全球第二大的股市，僅次于紐約。

It has also become the centre for many of the country's other financial activities, including interbank lending, bond trading and foreign exchange.

上海還成為中國(guó)內(nèi)地其它金融活動(dòng)的中心，包括銀行間借貸、債券交易和外匯交易。

Yet while Shanghai is entrenched as the domestic financial hub of mainland China, its role in international finance remains minimal. Only slowly have mainland regulators allowed foreign groups to participate in the domestic financial system, or domestic groups to venture overseas.

然而，盡管確立了中國(guó)內(nèi)地金融中心的地位，但上海在國(guó)際金融中的角色仍微乎其微。在允許外國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)參與本國(guó)金融體系或國(guó)內(nèi)機(jī)構(gòu)投資海外方面，中國(guó)內(nèi)地監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)行動(dòng)遲緩。

On one significant definition of a global financial centre – being a place where foreigners choose to do deals with other foreigners – Shanghai is still on the starting blocks.

按照全球金融中心的一個(gè)重要定義——外國(guó)人選擇與其他外國(guó)人進(jìn)行交易的地方——來(lái)評(píng)判，上海仍處于起點(diǎn)。

If it is to challenge Hong Kong and Singapore as a regional financial centre by 2020 – let alone rival London or New York – regulators will need to move much faster than they have done in recent years.

上海要想到2020年挑戰(zhàn)香港和新加坡的區(qū)域金融中心的地位（且不提倫敦或紐約），監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的動(dòng)作將有必要比最近幾年快得多。

Take the stock market. In 2003, China introduced a scheme to allow qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) to buy Chinese securities. But seven years later, fewer than 100 foreign groups have been approved and less than $20bn of investment quotas have been awarded.

以股市為例。2003年，中國(guó)推出了合格境外機(jī)構(gòu)投資者(QFII)機(jī)制，允許他們購(gòu)買(mǎi)中國(guó)內(nèi)地股票。但7年后，中國(guó)批準(zhǔn)的QFII投資者不到100家，授予的投資額度不到200億美元。

Of course, policymakers have every reason to move cautiously when it comes to financial liberalisation. China's government bond futures market collapsed in 1995, just two years after it started, as a lack of regulatory oversight led to rampant market manipulation.

當(dāng)然，就金融自由化來(lái)說(shuō)，政策制定者完全有理由謹(jǐn)慎行事。1995年，中國(guó)國(guó)債期貨市場(chǎng)僅僅在成立兩年后就發(fā)生了崩盤(pán)，原因是缺乏監(jiān)管導(dǎo)致了瘋狂的市場(chǎng)操縱行為。

A cautious approach towards reforms is one reason why China's financial system emerged from the global financial crisis relatively unscathed.

謹(jǐn)慎推進(jìn)改革是中國(guó)金融體系相對(duì)未受全球金融危機(jī)影響的一個(gè)原因。

Few believe Beijing is in any rush to open up its capital account – the number one precondition for Shanghai to become an international contender. Officials say the goal is to make the renminbi “more convertible”, but they provide little detail on how or when that might happen.

很少有人相信中國(guó)政府會(huì)匆忙開(kāi)放其資本賬戶(hù)——這是上海成為國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的首要條件。官員們表示，目標(biāo)是提高人民幣的可兌換程度，但他們很少提供如何或何時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)的細(xì)節(jié)。

The legal system is another big obstacle. Experts say a sophisticated financial services industry requires a much more transparent, predictable and fair legal system.

法律體系是另一個(gè)主要障礙。專(zhuān)家們表示，一個(gè)成熟的金融服務(wù)業(yè)需要一個(gè)更加透明、可預(yù)測(cè)和公平的法律體系。

“China is still playing catch-up to get its laws up to the level of a market economy,” says Douglas Clark, partner at the Shanghai office of law firm Lovells. He reckons the 2020 goal is a “fantasy”.

英國(guó)路偉律師事務(wù)所(Lovells)上海辦公室合伙人馬錦德(Douglas Clark)表示：“中國(guó)仍在追趕，讓本國(guó)法律體系達(dá)到市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的水平?！彼J(rèn)為2020年的目標(biāo)是一個(gè)“幻想”。

One big reason that Hong Kong emerged as a global financial centre is its robust legal system, which was established by its former rulers, the British.

香港成為全球金融中心的一個(gè)重要原因，是其前任統(tǒng)治者英國(guó)建立的健全的法律體系。

“It takes more than 10 years to develop the ability to deal with complex [financial] cases,” says Mr Clark.

馬錦德表示：“中國(guó)需要10年以上時(shí)間才能發(fā)展處理復(fù)雜（金融）案件的能力。”

Then there is Shanghai's lack of experienced financial professionals – the lifeblood of any financial hub. The city government is working hard to recruit talented professionals trained overseas and has even doled out tax breaks to lure some senior figures.

此外，上海缺乏經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的金融專(zhuān)業(yè)人士——這是所有金融中心的命脈。上海市政府正努力招募在海外受過(guò)訓(xùn)練的專(zhuān)業(yè)人才，甚至提供稅收減免以吸引一些高級(jí)人才。

But professionals accustomed to the lifestyle of Hong Kong or New York may need some convincing. China has a punitive 45 per cent income tax and cannot offer the same level of education and healthcare.

但習(xí)慣于香港或紐約生活方式的專(zhuān)業(yè)人士可能需要一些說(shuō)服。中國(guó)擁有45%的懲罰性的個(gè)人所得稅，而且不能提供同等水平的教育和醫(yī)療服務(wù)。

Ultimately, for Shanghai to stand a chance of becoming a genuine international financial centre within a decade, China will need to transform its economy and legal system at an unprecedented speed.

最終，上海要想有可能在十年內(nèi)成為真正的國(guó)際金融中心，中國(guó)需要以空前的速度改變其經(jīng)濟(jì)和法律體系。

If Beijing is serious about the 2020 deadline, prepare for a wild ride.

如果中國(guó)政府對(duì)2020年的截止期限是認(rèn)真的話(huà)，那就準(zhǔn)備迎接動(dòng)蕩的過(guò)程吧。