The Drake equation is used to estimate the number of highly evolved civilizations that might exist in our galaxy. The equation was developped in 1961 by Dr.Frank Drake at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory.

德雷克方程式是用來估計(jì)銀河系內(nèi)擁有高度發(fā)展文明的星球數(shù)量的。1961年，美國(guó)國(guó)家無線電天文臺(tái)的弗蘭克·德雷克博士創(chuàng)造出了這個(gè)方程式。


The equation is generally specified as:

這個(gè)方程式寫作：

N＝R*×Ep×Ne×F1×Fi×Fc×L??
?
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

我們能夠與之溝通的、有高度文明的外星球數(shù)量


R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy

銀河系中每年新星球“出生率”


Ep = the fraction of those stars that have planets

能生長(zhǎng)植物的星球所占的比率


Ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

每顆這樣的星球上能維持生命的植物的平均數(shù)目


F1 = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point

其中真正能出現(xiàn)生命痕跡的星球比率


Fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

其中能出現(xiàn)高等生命的星球比率


Fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

擁有向宇宙中發(fā)射可識(shí)別信號(hào)的能力的文明在以上星球中所占的比率


L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

那樣的高等文明生物發(fā)射可識(shí)別心信號(hào)的時(shí)間


Where extraterrestrial civilizations may be rare, there is something that is seemingly rarer still: A girlfriend. What might the approach employed in the estimation of the number of alien civilizations tell us about the number of potential girlfriends for me? A somewhat less scientific question, I admit, but one of substantial importance.

雖說外星生命及其稀少，但還是有一種生命比它更稀少：女朋友。這個(gè)能估量外星文明的公式該怎么用來估量我的潛在女友呢？我承認(rèn)這是件不怎么科學(xué)的測(cè)試，但對(duì)我來說有著相當(dāng)大的重要性。


The parameters are redefined as follows:

這樣的話，參數(shù)就要重新設(shè)置一下


N= The number of potential girlfriends

潛在女友的數(shù)量


R* = The rate of formation of people in the UK(tion growth)

英國(guó)的人口增長(zhǎng)率


Ep = The fraction of people in the UK who are women

女性在總?cè)丝谥兴急嚷?/div>

Ne = The fraction of women in the UK who live in Londo
n
居住在倫敦的女性在所有女性中的比率


Fe = The fraction of women in London who are age-appropriate

年齡合適的女性在其中所占的比率


Fi = The fraction of age=appropriate women in London with a university education

年齡合適并有大學(xué)文憑的女性在其中所占比率


Fc = The fraction of age-appropriate, university-educated women in London who I find physically attractive

年齡合適、有大學(xué)文憑、我覺得長(zhǎng)得好看的女性人數(shù)所占比率


L = The length of time in years that I have been alive thus making an encounter with a potential girlfriend possible

我能遇見一個(gè)這樣的女孩所需要的時(shí)間


If we plug in the above values we get: N=10,510

將以上所有的值相乘，我們得到的答案是：10，510


What this means is that on a given night there is greater than a 1 in 1000 chance that I will meet an attractive woman between the age of 24 and 34 with a university degree. Of course I have to take into account the fraction of women who will find me attractive, the fraction of women who will be single and the fraction of women who I will get along with. Including such factors would greatly reduce the above figure of 10,510. So the chance is 1 in 258,000, about 100 times better than finding an alien civilization. Still not bad.

這意味著，某一天晚上出去，我遇上一個(gè)24歲到34歲之間、大學(xué)畢業(yè)的理想女孩的概率大于千分之一。當(dāng)然我還得考慮加進(jìn)覺得我長(zhǎng)得好看的女孩的比率、單身女性的比率、我能與其相處甚歡的女性人數(shù)所占比率。加進(jìn)這些因素后，概率會(huì)大大降低，變成258，000分之一，比起找到外星文明的概率高了100倍，還不壞。


Make of this what you will. It might cheer you up, it might depress you. I guess it depends on what you thought your chances were before reading this.

對(duì)這個(gè)結(jié)果的看法就因人而異了。你或許覺得挺高興，或許覺得挺郁悶。我想這得取決于你之前對(duì)這個(gè)幾率的估計(jì)。

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